Pacific climate intelligence

Monitor ENSO signals and explain the chance of El Nino development.

Track Nino 3.4 anomalies, ONI history, risk levels, dynamic Pacific flow patterns, and a transparent experimental outlook in one multilingual dashboard.

View live dashboard How prediction works

Dashboard

Current state

Key ocean and atmosphere signals used to monitor ENSO conditions.

Current phase Loading Awaiting data
Latest Nino 3.4 -- Weekly SST anomaly
Latest ONI -- 3-month running mean
El Nino probability -- Next season window

ONI trend

Oceanic Nino Index values, with +/-0.5 C thresholds.

Stored data

Signal checklist

    Forecast

    Prediction outlook

    Compare a local transparent model with official forecast links. The local model is a decision-support aid, not an official forecast.

    Phase probabilities

    Seasonal probability split for El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina.

    6 seasons

    Nino 3.4 outlook

    Projected anomaly path from persistence, trend, and seasonal weights.

    Experimental

    Model note

    Transparent prediction logic

    This portal estimates short-range ENSO risk from the latest Nino 3.4 anomaly, recent ONI trend, persistence, and a seasonal adjustment that gives more weight to boreal autumn and winter. It should be used alongside NOAA CPC and IRI guidance.

    Season codes

    What the 3-letter season codes mean

    ENSO forecasts and ONI tables use rolling 3-month seasons. Each code is made from the first letter of each month in that 3-month period.

    DJFDecember-January-February
    JFMJanuary-February-March
    FMAFebruary-March-April
    MAMMarch-April-May
    AMJApril-May-June
    MJJMay-June-July
    JJAJune-July-August
    JASJuly-August-September
    ASOAugust-September-October
    SONSeptember-October-November
    ONDOctober-November-December
    NDJNovember-December-January

    The letters identify the months in each forecast window. Because ONI uses 3-month means, neighboring windows overlap by two months.

    Acronym guide

    What every acronym and technical code means

    Use this guide when reading the dashboard, charts, maps, and official-source links.

    ENSO
    El Nino-Southern Oscillation: the Pacific ocean-atmosphere cycle that includes El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral phases.
    ONI
    Oceanic Nino Index: a 3-month mean sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region.
    SST
    Sea-surface temperature: ocean temperature at or near the surface.
    NOAA
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a United States scientific agency.
    CPC
    Climate Prediction Center, NOAA's climate monitoring and forecasting center.
    IRI
    International Research Institute for Climate and Society, which publishes ENSO forecast guidance with CPC.
    Nino 3.4
    Central equatorial Pacific monitoring box; a key ENSO reference region.
    Nino 1+2 / 3 / 4
    Other ENSO monitoring boxes from the far eastern Pacific to the western-central Pacific.
    C
    Degrees Celsius, used for SST and ONI temperature anomalies.
    DJF...NDJ
    Rolling 3-month climate seasons used in ONI tables and forecast windows.
    El Nino
    Warm ENSO phase, usually linked with warmer central/eastern equatorial Pacific waters.
    La Nina
    Cool ENSO phase, usually linked with cooler central/eastern equatorial Pacific waters.
    E / W / N / S
    Compass directions used on the map: East, West, North, and South.
    SE
    Southeast, used in Maritime SE Asia.

    Dynamic map

    El Nino flow across the Pacific

    Animated Pacific map showing how weakened trade winds, warm surface water, and convection shift across real-world ENSO monitoring regions.

    Animated ocean-atmosphere flow

    A realistic Pacific basemap with animated heat, currents, wind arrows, and ENSO monitoring boxes.

    --
    Western Pacific warm pool
    East Pacific warming
    Equator
    Malaysia / Maritime Southeast Asia
    Dynamic visualization; use official forecasts for operational decisions.

    What the animation means

    1. Trade winds weakenNormal easterly trades weaken, reducing the westward push on surface water.
    2. Warm water shifts eastWarm surface water spreads toward the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
    3. Rainfall zones moveTropical cloud and rainfall patterns can shift, changing regional heat, rain, and drought risk.
    4. Stronger anomaly = faster flowThe animation speeds up when the latest Nino 3.4 anomaly is warmer.

    Advanced infographic

    How El Nino builds and spreads

    A compact ocean-atmosphere explainer linking the map animation, ONI chart, forecast probabilities, and regional planning notes.

    El Nino mechanism infographic Diagram showing warm water, weakened trade winds, thermocline change, convection shift, and monitoring boxes. Nino 3.4 Nino 4 Nino 3 Atmosphere Ocean Weakened trade winds Warm anomaly spreads east Rainfall / convection shifts Thermocline flattens
    Ocean trigger Nino 3.4 warms

    Warm anomalies above +0.5 C support El Nino monitoring, especially when they persist across seasons.

    Atmosphere response Walker circulation changes

    Weaker trade winds and shifted convection show ocean-atmosphere coupling, which can amplify the event.

    Planning link Risk is regional

    Malaysia and Maritime Southeast Asia often need to watch heat, rainfall deficits, haze risk, water demand, and agriculture stress.

    SST anomaly ONI persistence Wind and rainfall shift Seasonal probability Local risk notes

    Indicators

    ENSO monitoring regions

    The Nino 3.4 region is the main reference area for many ENSO monitoring products.

    Nino monitoring regions map Pacific region map highlighting Nino monitoring boxes. Equator Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 4 1+2 Monitoring boxes are shown for regional reference.

    Latest values

    IndicatorValueInterpretation

    Impacts

    Risk notes

    Regional impacts vary. Use these cards as planning prompts rather than deterministic warnings.

    Sources

    Official data sources

    Reference links used for ONI history, ENSO status discussion, and probabilistic outlooks.

    Reading notes

    1. ONI is a 3-month running mean of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region.
    2. Positive anomalies indicate warmer-than-average equatorial Pacific water.
    3. Probabilities compare El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina outcomes by season window.
    4. Season codes such as DJF and MAM are overlapping 3-month climate periods.